Daily Market Outlook, September 16, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Stocks continued their record-setting surge, and gold reached a new peak as investors anticipated an interest rate decrease from the Federal Reserve this week. The MSCI All Country World Index increased by 0.1%, marking its 10th consecutive day of gains, which is its longest winning streak in over four years. Asian markets rose to reach an all-time high, on track for their best performance in almost five years. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.1% after the index closed at a record high. Futures for European stocks also saw a slight uptick. In other news, Trump announced plans to speak with Chinese leader Xi on Friday as US and Chinese officials finalized a framework agreement to keep the TikTok app operating in the US. Oracle is part of a consortium that could allow TikTok to maintain its US presence if the deal is completed, according to CBS News. Gold prices soared to a new high, while a measure of the Dollar declined for the second consecutive day. Treasuries held steady as investors waited for Tuesday’s US retail sales figures. The Yen strengthened against the Dollar, partly due to Japan’s Agriculture Minister Koizumi entering the leadership race within the ruling LDP. In European developments, Trump is expected to unveil economic agreements worth over $10 billion during his trip to the UK this week. Meanwhile, France’s central bank revised its economic projections for the next two years downward, cautioning about potential risks stemming from budget uncertainties following another government collapse.
China's August data showed softness, with industrial production and retail sales missing expectations. However, the key concern is the ongoing decline in fixed asset investment (+0.5% ytd), despite fiscal spending boosting credit growth. This slowdown stems from the government’s “anti-involution” policy, curbing overcapacity and dampening state-owned and manufacturing investment. Compounding this is the real estate slump: property investment fell -12.9% ytd, home prices have declined for over two years, sales dropped 7.0% ytd, and inventory remains high (29 months in Tier 1/2 cities, 52+ months in Tier 3). Efforts to address uncompleted developments have worsened oversupply, pressuring prices, household wealth, consumer confidence, and spending. This increases reliance on exports to sustain growth targets. Stimulus measures appear ineffective, as they focus on short-term fixes rather than addressing structural demand weakness.
This morning's ONS report on the UK labour market offered little in the way of surprises for those anticipating dramatic developments. Most headline figures aligned closely with expectations. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% in the three months to July, while private sector regular pay growth also hit 4.7% year-on-year for the same period, matching both market consensus and the Bank of England's staff forecasts from the August Monetary Policy Report. However, the employment narrative remains somewhat puzzling. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) indicated employment gains of 232,000 over the three months to July, yet HMRC's payroll data showed a monthly decline of 8,000 in August. Despite this, one notable takeaway regarding labour market slack is the slight rise in the number of unemployed people per vacancy, now at 2.3 compared to 2.2 previously, signaling a gradual easing of tightness in the job market. A potential concern for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lies in the divergent trends in pay growth. While some measures indicate moderation, the more up-to-date HMRC median pay growth series reported a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in August, up from 6.0% in July. This contrasts with the LFS average earnings trend and seems largely driven by public sector pay rather than private sector dynamics. In summary, while today's labour market report largely met expectations, tomorrow's inflation data could carry greater significance in shaping economic outlooks.
Overnight Headlines
ZEW Outlook Set To Ease Again With Shares Down On The Month
Senate Confirms Trump Adviser Miran To Fed Board
Appeals Court Rejects Trump Request To Remove Fed’s Cook
BoJ To Stand Pat As Ishiba’s Exit Adds To Clouds Over Rate Path
Fed Set To Cut Rates As Powell Faces Dissent Over Slowing Economy
Treasuries Race Past World Peers On Cusp Of New Fed Easing Cycle
US Won’t Hit China With Tariffs Over Russian Oil Unless Europe Goes First
US Tariff Of 15% On Japanese Auto Exports To Take Effect Tuesday
Trump Calls For Ending Quarterly Earnings Report
Google Becomes A $3T Company By Market Capitalisation
Google To Invest £5B In UK Over Next Two Years
CoreWeave Inks $6.3B Deal To Rent Chips Back To Nvidia
Microsoft Raises Quarterly Dividend By 9.6%
Jack Ma Returns With A Vengeance To ‘Make Alibaba Great Again’
Hong Kong Equity Deals Boom As Chinese Firms Rush To Market
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1700-15 (3BLN), 1.1750-60 (3.5BLN), 1.1800-05 (2.4BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7860-75 (650M), 0.8075 (428M)
GBP/USD: 1.3540-55 (590M), 1.3600 (445M), 1.3620 (158M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8740 (457M)
AUD/USD: 0.6590-0.6600 (1.1BLN), 0.6640 (200M)
USD/CAD: 1.3880 (398M), 1.3900-10 (653M), 1.3925 (225M)
USD/JPY: 145.90-146.00 (2.1BLN), 146.50-60 (1BLN), 147.00 (828M)
147.15 (450M), 147.50 (661M), 147.70 (305M), 148.00 (690M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 12/9/25
Speculators have raised their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 21,340 contracts, bringing the total to 98,608. They have also increased their net short position in CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures by 2,262 contracts, resulting in a total of 265,481. On the other hand, there has been a reduction in the net short position for CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures by 10,386 contracts, now totaling 857,972. Similarly, speculators have cut their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 127,224 contracts, bringing it down to 2,554,763. Conversely, there is an increase in the net short position for CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures by 78,878 contracts, now totaling 1,374,961.
In the equity market, fund managers have lifted their S&P 500 CME net long position by 31,521 contracts to a total of 882,560, while equity fund speculators have raised their S&P 500 CME net short position by 43,737 contracts, reaching 419,631.
The Japanese yen net long position stands at 91,643 contracts, with the euro's net long position at 125,677 contracts. The British pound has a net short position of -33,605 contracts, while the Swiss franc shows a net short position of -28,839 contracts. Lastly, Bitcoin has a net short position of -468 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6440 Target 6666
Below 6420 Target 6370
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.1750 Target 1.15
Above 1.18 Target 1.1910
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.36 Target 1.30
Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 1.49 Target 1.45
Above 1.51 Target 1.54
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 3500 Target 3700
Below 3400 Target 3300
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 110k Target 118k
Below 109k Target 105k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!