Macro / Market backdrop

Risk-off impulse driven by Middle East escalation and energy shock (oil + European gas). Global yields higher on inflation impulse, while FX is juggling:

  • shifting rate expectations,

  • commodity importers vs exporters,

  • de-risking and systematic flows.

Key risk: narrative can flip to stagflation quickly if payrolls disappoint (Feroli view referenced), constraining central banks from easing despite growth fragility.

Key views & positioning by currency

EUR

  • Take: “Resilient” initially but fragile; energy/gas rip undermines EU growth narrative.

  • Positioning: Short EUR maintained after breaking 100d & 200d MAs.

  • Levels: watching YTD low 1.1573 in EURUSD; if no test today, consider squaring short-term.

  • Peripheral: dribbling out EURHUF on rallies to rebuild position trimmed last week.

GBP

  • Catalyst: further TTF lurch higher; UK sensitivity high (2022 energy-memory).

  • Positioning: Short GBPUSD (“cable”) maintained (sold rally yesterday).

  • Technicals: closed below 200d 1.3446, likely below 100d 1.3399.

  • Supports: 1.3280/90, then 1.3160/70.

JPY

  • Interpretation: JPY acting more like oil importer than pure haven, but crosses offer “some safety.”

  • Positioning: Long JPY mainly via crosses (vs EUR/GBP/CHF) in cash; keep core optionality in USDJPY.

  • Key tech in crosses:

    • EURJPY testing 183.00/20 (cloud bottom/pivot).

    • GBPJPY near 208.995 (cloud bottom).

    • CHFJPY broke ~201 pivot; 50d ~199.39 highlighted as next.

CHF

  • Weird tape: despite risk-off, CHF among weaker performers as SNB signals willingness to intervene.

  • Implication: 0.90 in EURCHF framed as a “line in the sand” (low cited 0.9028).

  • Tension: hard to be long CHF on intervention risk, but also hard to be long EURCHF in risk-off.

  • Trade idea: CHFJPY short flagged as attractive, though some move already occurred from 204.

AUD / NZD

  • AUD: supported on crosses as major LNG exporter; still positioning risk in full risk-off.

  • Positioning: Long AUDNZD maintained, partial profit taken on overbought RSI.

  • RBA: Bullock comments lean hawkish (“March live”, oil risk to expectations).

  • Data/watch: AU inflation print next Thursday; market pricing noted ~9 bps for Mar 17.

CAD

  • CAD insulated by energy beta, but vulnerable if growth fears dominate.

  • Positioning: Modest long USDCAD maintained.

  • Level: watching 1.3700/25 resistance (held in Feb).

  • Flows: HFs/RM sold CAD; systematic demand offset partially.

NOK / SEK

  • View: with Qatar LNG halted + energy shock, NOK should outperform on crosses (supply-driven, but “eye of storm”).

  • Trade expression: Buy/add NOKSEK on pullbacks toward 0.9500/10 until de-escalation headlines.

  • Flows: SEK mixed (RM selling; SHF/HF buying). RM taking profit on established NOK longs.

Trade slate

  • Keep: Short EURUSD (tactical; watch 1.1573 YTD low / potential near-term square)

  • Keep: Short GBPUSD, targets via supports 1.3280/90 then 1.3160/70

  • Keep/add: Long JPY vs EUR/GBP/CHF in crosses; keep USDJPY optionality

  • Keep: Long AUDNZD (trimmed some)

  • Keep: Long USDCAD (watch 1.3700/25)

  • Add on dips: Long NOKSEK near 0.9500/10

  • Opportunistic: Short CHFJPY (momentum/policy-intersection theme), mindful move already occurred