Delta-One Flows & Positioning

Top Takeaways

• Semis remain the dominant dip-buying theme. Investors aggressively bought semiconductor ETFs despite broader market weakness, with large inflows into SOXX, SOXL, and DRAM.

• Korea saw record ETF inflows. After roughly four months of softer demand, Korea attracted its largest weekly net inflow on record at $3.3bn, largely through EWY.

• Futures and ETFs sent very different signals. Equity futures were heavily net sold as markets weakened, led by NDX, while equity ETFs still saw moderately above-average inflows. In other words: futures de-risking, ETF dip-buying.

• Rates futures were bought, but bond ETF demand was weak. Bond futures saw strong net buying, while fixed-income ETF inflows were subdued.

• Energy was bid on Middle East escalation. Gasoline futures saw very strong buying, around 3z, while CTAs likely added energy exposure as prices rose.

• CTAs likely trimmed equities and bought energy. CTA positioning likely remains broadly long global equities ex-China, but last week’s weakness and higher volatility probably forced some reduction.

Weekly Flow Highlights

US ETF Flows: Equities Still Attracting Money

Over the last week, US-listed ETF flows showed:

The key message: even with risk under pressure, equity ETF demand remained resilient, especially in semis and tech.

Equity ETFs: Tech and Semis Lead Again

Technology was the clear sector winner.

• Tech ETF inflows: +$6.6bn, +3.1z

• Semis were the main driver

  • SOXX: +$4.2bn

  • SOXL: +$1.9bn

• DRAM: +$1.8bn inflow in thematic ETFs

This points to investors using the market weakness to reload semiconductor exposure.

Other sector flows

Regional ETF Flows: Korea Stands Out

Regionally:

• US: +$21.6bn, +0.3z

  • Modestly above-average inflows.

• International DM: +$6.0bn, -0.2z

  • Slightly below average.

• Korea: +$3.3bn, +4.9z

  • Record weekly inflow.

  • Largely driven by EWY.

The Korea inflow is one of the most important signals in the report, especially given the broader semiconductor and memory theme.

Style and Thematic Flows

Equity styles

• Low Vol: solid inflows, +1z

• Growth: outflows, -0.7z

This is a notable split: investors are still buying tech/semis, but broader growth style demand was weaker.

Option-based ETFs

Option strategies saw strong inflows:

• Call-writing ETFs: +$1.6bn, +1.3z

• Defined-outcome ETFs: +$0.9bn, +2.1z

However, more than half of defined-outcome inflows went into HELO, potentially linked to a custom in-kind basket rebalance.

Thematics

Headline thematic flows looked weak because of the redemption leg of ARK CIBs flagged previously.

Excluding that distortion, thematic flows were closer to average, with the standout being:

• DRAM: +$1.8bn

Levered ETFs: Dip-Buying in Semis

Levered ETF flows confirm the semiconductor dip-buying theme.

Inflows included:

• SOXL: around +$1.9bn

• TQQQ / KORU combined: around +$0.7bn

There were also outflows from inverse funds:

• SQQQ / SOXS combined: around -$0.4bn

That points to investors reducing bearish expressions while adding levered upside exposure.

However, levered single-stock ETFs saw outflows:

• Levered single-stock products: -$0.8bn, -1.3z

• Led by redemptions in products linked to:

  • NVDA

  • TSLA

  • MU

  • SNDK

So the demand was more for broad semi/beta exposure than single-name levered products.

Futures Flows

Big Picture: De-risking in Equity Futures

Global futures flows showed a different picture from ETFs.

Equity futures saw heavy net selling, particularly in NDX, consistent with de-risking during market weakness.

Large net buying, above +1.5z

Large net selling, below -1.5z

The futures message is more cautious than the ETF message: institutional/fast-money accounts appear to have reduced risk, especially in index futures.

CTA Positioning

CTAs Likely Trimmed Equities, Bought Energy

CTAs likely reduced equity longs week-on-week as:

• Markets dipped

• Volatility rose

• Iran escalation headlines lifted energy prices

However, they likely remain broadly long global equities, excluding China.

Estimated CTA positioning

The key shift was likely less equity length and more energy exposure.

CFTC Positioning

Asset Managers and Leveraged Funds Reduced Equity Futures

CFTC data showed selling across key equity futures.

Asset Managers

Asset Managers sold around 1z of:

• SPX

• NDX

• MID

Leveraged Funds

Leveraged Funds sold around 1z of:

• RTY

• NDX

• EM

Managed Money in Commodities

Managed Money:

• Added to Brent longs: +1.9z

• Increased US Natgas shorts: -1.9z

• Covered Wheat shorts: +1.6z

The commodity picture is consistent with the broader theme: energy risk premium is being rebuilt on Middle East escalation.

The report shows a clear split:

• ETFs: investors are still buying the dip, especially in semis, tech and Korea.

• Futures: positioning looks more defensive, with equity futures de-risking and rates/energy futures being bought.

• CTAs: likely reduced equities and added energy.

• Macro overlay: Middle East risk is lifting energy exposure, while equity weakness is not yet stopping ETF dip-buying.

The cleanest theme remains: semiconductor dip-buying is alive and well, with Korea now joining as a major flow beneficiary.