US/Iran Threat Driving Crude
Crude prices continue to push higher midweek with bullish momentum starting to build firmly here. The bullish channel break has seen price reversing above the December highs, signalling potential for a much higher push near-term if the backdrop remains supportive. On that front, the key driver behind current buying is the growing geopolitical risk around Iran and the threat of a US military strike. Trump has warned repeatedly that the US will use military force if conditions don’t improve and with state violence against protesters continuing, despite US sanctions this week, the threat of military action remains high. Iran has warned that any US strike will be met with counter action against nearby US bases and, as such, a full scale conflict cannot be ruled out.
Near-Term Volatility Risks
For now, the situation in Iran remains the key driver for oil prices and the rally is expected to continue while tensions remain elevated. Any news of an uptick in violence or that the US is preparing to use military force should see oil firmly higher near-term and as such, traders should be wary of volatility risks. Given Iran’s status as one of OPEC’s top producers, the threat of major supply disruption is a significant upside risks for prices near-term.
Technical Views
Crude
The rally in crude has seen price breaking out above the bear channel from summer 2025 highs and above the local December highs. Price is now probing above 61.39 and with momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continuation higher here with 64.41 the next bull target to note.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.