Daily Market Outlook, April 23, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Markets turned more cautious on Thursday, with equities and bonds under pressure as stalled US-Iran negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil higher and revived concerns about the growth-inflation trade-off. After Wall Street’s record highs on Wednesday, the tone shifted overnight as investors reassessed how durable the ceasefire really is in the absence of diplomatic progress. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.6%, with losers outnumbering gainers by roughly 3:1, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both slipped 0.5%. European equities were set to open around 1% lower, pointing to a broader pullback in risk appetite. Oil remains the central macro-transmission channel. Brent rose another 1.1% to $103/bbl, extending its run to a fourth straight day of gains as the failure to advance US-Iran talks kept supply disruption fears elevated. The scale of the move remains striking, with Brent now up roughly 70% year-to-date, much of it tied to the escalation that began in late February. Higher oil is now starting to weigh more visibly on both equities and rates as investors confront the possibility that persistent energy stress could undermine growth while simultaneously adding to inflation pressure. In rates, Treasuries came under renewed pressure, with the US 10-year yield up 2bp to 4.32%, as the bond market priced the inflationary implications of elevated crude. The Dollar also firmed against most major peers, consistent with a more defensive market tone. Elsewhere, gold fell 0.8%, though it remained above $4,700/oz, silver dropped 2% to around $76.15/oz, and Bitcoin edged lower to roughly $77,800.

Domestically, the key takeaway from the UK March public finances release is that the gilt market cared less about the headline borrowing numbers and more about the cash requirement because that directly feeds into the government’s near-term financing need. On the surface, the fiscal outturn was broadly in line with the OBR Spring Forecast: PSNB for 2025–26 printed at £132.0bn, very close to the OBR’s £132.7bn estimate, while the current budget deficit came in at £50.9bn versus an expected £49.2bn. Those are not big enough misses to materially alter the broader fiscal story. What mattered more was the cash-based deficit measure, CGNCR, because once the prior fiscal year is finalised, it is used to recalibrate the financing remit for the new year. On that measure, the news was clearly more constructive for gilts: the 2025–26 cash requirement was £135.9bn, some £8.8bn below the OBR’s Spring Forecast. In practical terms, that means the government ended the year with more cash on hand than expected, effectively leaving the 2026–27 program overfunded by nearly £9 billion compared to prior assumptions. That creates room to reduce this year’s funding target. And that is precisely what the DMO has done. The 2026–27 remit has been cut by £5.9bn to £251.2bn, broadly in line with expectations for a modest technical downward revision. So in headline terms, the outcome is supportive but not especially surprising. The more interesting detail is in the composition: rather than adjusting the program via Treasury bill issuance, which is often the preferred margin for in-year technical changes, the DMO has chosen to fund the entire reduction through lower gilt sales. As a result, planned gilt issuance for 2026–27 falls to £246.2bn from £252.1bn previously.

Overnight Headlines

• UK Could Save £2.5B By Helping Banks To Buy Gilts, Says Barclays

• EU Car Sales Grow In March As EV Rise Offsets IC Engine Decline

• Thune Signals The Senate Will Ramp Up Fed Oversight

• GOP Sen Blocking Warsh Makes His Stand On Market Stability

• BoJ Seen Dropping Hawkish Signs Even As It Keeps Rates Steady

• Mediators Push To Get Iran, US Back Into Negotiations Friday

• Iran: Seized 2 Ships In The Strait, Hours After Ceasefire Extension

• Oil Holds Gains As Peace Negotiations Between US And Iran Stall

• Gold Steadies As Hormuz Standoff Keeps Inflation Risk High

• Dollar Use In Global Trade Rose To High Amid War, Swift Says

• S Korea’s Q1 GDP Roars On Booming AI-Driven Chip Demand

• Nvidia Supplier SK Hynix’s Q1 Profit Rises 5-Fold On AI Boom

• Microsoft Commits $18B To Build Australian AI Capacity

• Tesla’s First-Quarter Earnings Beat Wall Street Expectations

• IBM Posts In-Line Software Sales That Fail To Shake AI Concerns

• Texas Instruments Logs Higher First-Quarter Profit, Revenue

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1650 (EU3.98b), 1.1825 (EU3.69b), 1.1550 (EU1.55b)

• USD/JPY: 162.00 ($1.16b), 159.00 ($863.9m), 156.80 ($660m)

• AUD/USD: 0.7200 (AUD1.89b), 0.7000 (AUD977.3m), 0.7250 (AUD777.9m)

• USD/CNY: 6.8000 ($735m), 6.7700 ($450m), 6.8700 ($415m)

• USD /MXN: 17.88 ($562.4m), 17.85 ($358.6m), 17.10 ($320m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3620 (GBP647.8m), 1.3690 (GBP600.4m), 1.3420 (GBP571.7m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3650 ($1.17b), 1.3875 ($931.7m), 1.3655 ($379.1m)

• USD/BRL: 5.1000 ($1.16b), 5.7000 ($542.5m), 5.0000 ($519m)

• USD/KRW: 1440.00 ($733m), 1400.00 ($535m), 1360.00 ($305m)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8000 (EU686m), 0.8750 (EU502.9m), 0.8700 (EU338.2m)

CFTC Positions as of April 10, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 186,638 contracts to 414,897

• Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 71,259 contracts to 1,011,108

• Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 72,816 contracts to 1,625,745

• Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 23,259 contracts to 800,365

• Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 8,209 contracts to 1,703,806

• Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 40,440 contracts to 300,823

• Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 15,120 contracts to 74,116

• Bitcoin net long position is 2,193 contracts

• Swiss franc posts net short position of -34,097 contracts

• British pound net short position is -54,724 contracts

• Euro net long position is 26,018 contracts

• Japanese yen net short position is -83,208 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 7050 Target 7200

• Below 6950 Target 6850

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 98.60 Target 99

• Below 98.50 Target 97

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1720 Target 1.19

• Below 1.1690 Target 1.1590

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610

• Below 1.34 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 158.50 Target 161

• Below 157.30 Target 156.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 73.5k Target 80k

• Below 72.6k Target 70.5k